NHC: Elsa nears Cuba; Portions of Floridas southwest coast under Tropical Storm See

Upgraded: 1:56 PM EDT Jul 4, 2021

Hey there everyone Uh First early morning meteorologist Kellyanne class here we are talking everything about her or a topical storm Elsa today the 11 a.m. Advisory was simply launched. So uh were gon na talk a lot about um Elsa today. Uh new info coming on in right now. Its still a tropical storm uh with winds of 60 MPH transferring to the west northwest at 13 MPH, pressure went up a number of millibars to about 1000 and 9. Its deteriorating very somewhat. Its connecting with Hispaniola today uh and its connecting with Jamaica and cuba. So we are going to be viewing this system really closely as we discuss the next number of days as it gets closer and closer to florida. So this is a look right now at hurricane Elsa. Uh It has an excellent decent quantity of conviction um as it tries to enter into the caribbean uh and its attempting to discover the best course today. Its trying to move over Jamaica and its connecting with the land certainly does not like that as tropical system and its beginning to bubble up. So uh This is something that is gradually starting to deteriorate however observe those water temperature levels 86-85 °. Um So hot waters that its entering into. Lets talk about where were at right now. The only watches and warnings in result hurricane watches and warnings is for cuba. But there are now her hurricane watches and warnings in impact for not simply Jamaica cuba, however now also southwest florida. Theres a tropical storm watch and after that theres a tropical storm caution for parts of the secrets. Absolutely nothing yet here for main florida or the west coast, however with the latest track from the National cyclone center, it is expected to type of paralleled, so review The Key is type of parallel the western coast and after that ultimately move towards the Big Bend area of florida. So here is the latest track from the National Hurricane center And its saying right around Monday early morning its going to make landfall in Cuba. Then by the next 12 hours its going to emerge off the coast of Cuba With winds of 60 miles per hour notification prior to makes landfall in Cuba. It has winds of 70 mph as we look towards Monday evening and compromised slightly once again. Then it re emerges into the warmer waters of the Gulf. Why is it not strengthening while its going to fight some wind shear? A fascinating thing that the National Hurricane Center is stating is that uh they are really some of the stuff that theyre putting out right now about the wind speeds are going a little bit greater than what some of the models are saying. So lets show you the models. Uh these are the intensity models now, they are all in excellent agreement that its going to stay a tropical storm status a number of days back, they were revealing anywhere from about a category 3 to a classification four, and now its appearing like its going to preserve hurricane for strength. Speaking of the models, uh theres a bit of shift, which I believe is extremely intriguing. There theres a bit of a shift in between all of the models before we were revealing designs that was going to go into the Big Bend area of florida or attempt to make landfall right around Tampa Clearwater and then move across the peninsula. Now theyre trending a little bit more west towards Tallahassee. We will need to see uh you understand, its not just one run that we d like to go off of. Its a trend that we like to see if we see a pattern that its entering that direction. National Hurricane Center will most likely agree with that. For now this is what theyre stating. The the center of the track can go anywhere from the outer edges of the line, on the left to the outer edge is on the line to the right, so it has all of this freedom to move. If it moves a little bit more towards the west will be uh in better shape in terms of not a strong winds, however I still believe that the impacts are going to be the same. Uh you understand, rainfall, certainly some tropical rainstorms and some isolated tornadoes. Naturally, the additional right or the additional east it tracks the better possibility we can see some stronger winds move on through. So right now the most current track from the National Hurricane Center has it passing over the straits of florida as we look towards the early Tuesday early morning, its off the coast of Fort Myers as we look towards Tuesday night and after that trying to make landfall as we look towards early Wednesday early morning. So its Tuesday into Wednesday. Thats going to be sort of that essential timespan. Uh lets take you through some things. Lets speak about when uh Clearwater Beach, we understand thats on the west coast. Heres what a few of our computer system designs are stating its going to reach hurricane for status. See winds there, the further east we go, The winds in fact start to pass away down. This is, take a look at Daytona Beach. We might see anywhere from about 25 to 30mph winds. Uh looks like the additional east you go, yes, well still be dealing with some gusty winds, however this is a little bit more like something that you get in a thunderstorm. So not truly going to be too worried about uh winds, however naturally its going to be a strong and long amount of time. This is, look at Orlando anywhere from about 20mph winds starting early Tuesday early morning to Wednesday six a.m. About 35 MPH winds of course the additional west you go a bit more stronger, the winds get nearly 40 mile per hour winds by early Wednesday morning in the towns. And as we look towards Leesburg Wednesday early morning, 40 mile per hour winds. So you kind of get the basic idea. Once again, its going to be anywhere from about sunday and into monday. I do think that the key issues with this is going to be of course rains and some gusty winds and some separated twisters because the track, sadly we were on the wrong side of the track. If this was a bit east, if this whole cone was towards the east and off of our coast, we would be worried about tornadoes, we would have some coastal issues however regrettably appears like hurricane Elsa is advancing that course of making that northerly and northeasterly turn over the peninsula of water peninsula of florida. Lets look at a GFS model wind gusts, so kind of what we can expect. This is a look right now, four oclock this afternoon, whatevers fine. We have rather a while till we begin to feel a few of those gusts. Monday morning, south florida currently began getting on some gusty winds from a few of those external rain bands of Elsa. And then as we look, we can start to see some of that red turning up down in southwest florida by monday night, were beginning to get to the core of that storm as we begin to go through the evening hours and early Tuesday early morning, its basically type of riding the coast of southwest florida, so quite much parallel, however appears like southwest florida. By early Tuesday early morning kind of gets the force of the storm, but those winds will begin to choose up as we look towards main florida. By early Tuesday early morning, well begin to get some tropical rainstorms. Then discover those winds actually start to ramp up by Tuesday afternoon. So once again, Tuesday into Wednesday. As we look towards Wednesday though, this system tries to make landfall on coast early Wednesday early morning, greatest winds out along suncoast. And after that we start to get some guts as we look towards uh the morning hours on Wednesday. One thing that we are going to be worried about on Wednesday is our northwestern county. Believe Marion County Sumpter County, uh portions of Lake County certainly, however uh were believing more Marion and center counties will see some of the strongest wind gust since it is making that turn into the huge bend of florida. The further east you go on Wednesday, not as gusty, however still going to be concerned about those uh potential wind gusts. So 7:30 a.m. Wednesday morning, almost 30 mile per hour wind gusts around Ocala and as that storm continues to push to the north and northeast will start to clean out and calm down. A few of those gusty winds Wednesday afternoon and our southeastern counties still are central and specifically northern counties will be dealing with the force of the storm. Eventually the storm will retreat by Wednesday night and the majority of Wednesday evening into thursday need to be all right. So um Thats one thing were concerned about is the gusty winds. The other thing is certainly going to be the rains, despite the fact that it looks like its not going to even be here for about 48 hours, we could still get a pretty good amount of precipitation coming out of this storm. Uh 2 to 4 inches is what were looking at, around lake centre Marion, even portions of Lucia County and Volusia County looking like, well uh see that rains the further south east you go, specifically on the boulevard and Osceola County is one or 2 inches with some locally higher quantities. Um however still in any case, its going to develop some localized flooding. Of course that the highest rains totals will remain in and around southwest florida. Again, were gon na be worried about the rain, The winds, but its going to be a tropical storm. So, uh, once again, the National Hurricane Center is saying, although its going to move over water, its going to re strengthen with winds of 70 miles per hour by Monday early morning before it makes landfall in Cuba. Its then going to weekend and it has sustained winds over the next from Monday evening to Wednesday early morning of 60 miles per hour. So its going to encounter in this area a little bit of some wind shear, Wind shear at that point would be our buddy that would tear apart the storm. Clearly, one other thing that we are going to be concerned about Is the mountain peaks. Um, it had currently passed by, uh, the mountain peaks and Hispaniola, which are the highest at 10,000 ft. It started to sort of encounter those mountains out in Jamaica at 7000 ft. Theres still two mountain peaks left that could deteriorate the storm 6000 ft and almost 4000 ft. And the one that sent out 4000 ft, its going to go directly over. So thats looking to be our pal. Once again. Designs are in quite great agreement in regards to, we might get some impacts here in regards to rainfall, gusty winds, separated twisters. Now were starting to see that trend push a little bit more towards the Tallahassee location. So were gon na have to see these model trends very, really closely. I do believe were starting to get a better idea of what is occurring within this storm. Um, It is still weakening really very a little now has pressure of 1009 millibars. At 8 oclock in the early morning, it had pressure of 1000 and seven millibars. When you see that happen, when you see that pressure go up, that indicates that it is compromising. It now has winds of 60 MPH moving to the west northwest at 13 miles per hour. Its actually just attempting to discover the best environment for it to grow. Of course its going to be in and around this ridge of high pressure thats going to make it guide up to the North. Once it gets over CUba will have a much better concept of whats going to occur, I do think. Even if how rapidly is this land interaction going to have uh deteriorate tropical storm Elsa. Once it starts to move over CUBA, I think well have an even better concept of whats going to occur. Um But as of now, we have hurricane warnings in effect for portions of the florida secrets. That means within the next 36 hours there is going to be tropical storm conditions. In the yellow, we have tropical storm watches in result for the rest of the keys and southwest florida, which means within the next about 48 hours or so, we will have tropical storm conditions again. Nothing here for central florida, nothing here for uh the majority of south florida at that point. Um but we are still a day or more away from it being 48 hours away. Were keeping a very close eye on Elsa. Uh for those of you who have actually simply signed up with on in, simply wish to say uh happy fourth of july. Uh You know what a time to uh have a tropical storm during the holiday weekend. Ideally if youre here visiting this weekend, you had the ability to leave town before this does strike. Just know that we do have the potential to see some tropical storm forest conditions if you are here Visiting for four July rest of the week. Uh so if you are just joining, well discuss it once again. And uh so right now we just have hurricane watches and cautions in result. The most current track from the National cyclone center takes it over CUba with winds of 70 MPH, 8 oclock monday early morning. 12 hours later emerges off the coast of CUba, then starts to move towards the floor straits and then starts to curve into parts of central florida. Uh Wind going to be the main issue were this model reveals us the GFS versus the Euro. These are the 2 big designs, long variety models that we generally look at. We can already see the Euro prior to landfall in Cuba is trying to develop some stronger winds. GFS by 1030 on Tuesday evening desires to take those winds off the coast of Tampa Bay Clearwater area however then starts to fade on out. So the reality that were not seeing a great deal of color and excellent contract is a good thing, however something that were going to keep a close eye on of course, the other thing is going to be the potential flooding here in main florida anywhere from about 2 to 4 inches, particularly to the northwest of I 4. Even Orlando. Were looking at anywhere from about 2 to 3 inches because purple shading, however the additional south west you go the much better opportunity we can see for a few of that rain fall. So simply sort of timing whatever out, some of those local effects monday night. Some of your final preparations must be made. Um were discussing a hurricane with winds of about 60 miles per hour, the greatest winds offshore. Um I believe at this point the main concern is going to be that serious weather condition threats. Of course with tropical systems, we can get separated tornadoes in the mix. And that is going to be an issue as we look towards Tuesday and into Wednesday. So we are gon na be seeing flooding. Uh We are going to be expecting some gusty winds, particularly the further west you go since that storm, youre getting closer to the center of that storm. Uh And so the better opportunity we might see for some more powerful winds and then eventually we will be tracking not just tropical downpours, but also an isolated tornado danger. Cant be ruled out looking Wednesday evening into thursday things, quote unquote returned to typical. The storm will pull away up into Georgia and the Carolinas. Um and that will eventually help to kind of clear us out, calm us down, however well still be handling some gusty winds up to our northeastern areas or northern locations As we look towards Wednesday evening, it just depends on how quickly this storm pulls away. So, uh were gon na be watching uh likewise extremely carefully of course. Um we understand main florida weather, we know hurricanes, theres things that can change. Elsa has been pretty consistent about making that turn to the northeast along the big bend location of florida. So thats simply something that were going to be keeping an extremely close eye on. Once again. The timing truly is going to be looking towards. Uh as we look towards Tuesday into Wednesday evening from south to north will start to sort of go back to regular. Things will return to regular, but were still gon na be taking a look at a little bit of some rainfall and gusty end up to our north by Wednesday evening and after that ultimately the system pulls away. So A lot to unpack there. Of course, thats the 11 a.m. advisory from the National Hurricane. And uh you understand, we will naturally give you upgraded here on west to uh we have our next track coming out at five p.m. Alex policy will be here talking about that. Um And obviously any new info, make sure to follow us on all social media platforms. We will be upgrading you constantly throughout the vacation weekend, even if youre not glued to your television, We will be here, we will be upgrading you and ideally uh if youre getting out of town you have safe journeys back and pleased 4 July, everyone.

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NHC: Elsa nears Cuba; Portions of Floridas southwest coast under Tropical Storm Watch

Upgraded: 1:56 PM EDT Jul 4, 2021

Uh these are the intensity designs now, they are all in excellent contract that its going to stay a tropical storm status a couple of days earlier, they were showing anywhere from about a classification three to a classification four, however now its looking like its going to preserve tropical storm for strength. The other thing is certainly going to be the rains, even though it looks like its not going to even be here for about 48 hours, we could still get a quite good amount of rainfall coming out of this storm. Uh, again, the National Hurricane Center is saying, even though its going to move over water, its going to re reinforce with winds of 70 miles per hour by Monday early morning prior to it makes landfall in Cuba. Um, it had actually already passed by, uh, the mountain peaks and Hispaniola, which are the highest at 10,000 ft. It started to kind of encounter those mountains out in Jamaica at 7000 ft. Theres still two mountain peaks left that could degrade the storm 6000 feet and nearly 4000 ft. And the one that sent 4000 feet, its going to go directly over. Uh We are going to be viewing for some gusty winds, especially the further west you go since that storm, youre getting closer to the center of that storm.

ORLANDO, Fla.– Portions of Floridas southwest coast are under a tropical storm watch as Elsa nears eastern Cuba. At 2 p.m. on Sunday, the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located 40 miles south southeast of Cabo Cruz, Cuba according to forecasters. Elsa is anticipated to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday.Related: Video reveals storm damage in Barbados from Elsa.

Forecasters say Elsa may compromise somewhat while moving throughout Cuba on Sunday into Monday, prior to seeing a small strengthening over the Florida Straits.>> > > WESH 2 News 2021 Hurricane Survival Guide>> > > Surviving the Season: Hurricane Season 2021A Tropical Storm Warning is in impact for: The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, Santiago de Cuba, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, and HavanaJamaicaThe Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas A Hurricane Watch is in result for: The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de CubaA Tropical Storm Watch is in impact for: Cayman Brac and Little CaymanThe Cuban province of ArtemisaThe Florida Keys from east of Craig Key to Ocean Reef Florida BayThe southwest coast of Florida from Flamingo to Bonita Beach.

Parts of Floridas southwest coast are under a tropical storm watch as Elsa nears eastern Cuba. At 2 p.m. on Sunday, the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was situated 40 miles south southeast of Cabo Cruz, Cuba according to forecasters. > > WESH 2 News 2021 Hurricane Survival Guide>> > > Surviving the Season: Hurricane Season 2021A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for: The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, Santiago de Cuba, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, and HavanaJamaicaThe Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas A Hurricane Watch is in result for: The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de CubaA Tropical Storm Watch is in impact for: Cayman Brac and Little CaymanThe Cuban province of ArtemisaThe Florida Keys from east of Craig Key to Ocean Reef Florida BayThe southwest coast of Florida from Flamingo to Bonita Beach PHN0eWxlPi5lbWJlZC1yYWRhciB7IGNsZWFyOiBib3RoOyBoZWlnaHQ6IDEwMHZ3OyB9IEBtZWRpYSBvbmx5IHNjcmVlbiBhbmQgKG1pbi13aWR0aDogNDEuMjVyZW0pIHsgLmVtYmVkLXJhZGFyIHsgaGVpZ2h0OiA1MDBweDsgfSB9PC9zdHlsZT4KPHNjcmlwdCB0eXBlPSJ0ZXh0L2phdmFzY3JpcHQiIHNyYz0iaHR0cHM6Ly93aWRnZXRzLWx0cy5tZWRpYS53ZWF0aGVyLmNvbS93eHdpZGdldC5sb2FkZXIuanM/Y2lkPTI4Mjg1MjgwMSI+ PC9zY3JpcHQ+ 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.