With the trade deadline looming on the other side of the All-Star Break, its still uncertain which instructions the Mariners will go. Here, we lay out an argument for each choice– purchasing, selling, and standing pat– and some moves that might go along with each course.

Option One: the Mariners must be SELLERS!
It makes sense since:

Okay, maybe Mitch Haniger if its a great return, but with Hanigers offending numbers dipping dramatically in June, he may not fetch as much as he when would have. We are as a staff not thinking about selling low on Mitch Haniger, and some of us arent interested in selling off experienced management on the team, duration.
Teams who would be interested: Lots. Lots of groups require outfield assistance. CWS, NYM, CLE, STL, among others, maybe BOS, ATL, or MIL; not all of these groups will remain in the hunt, however thats what trade due date upgrades are for, to help make that push.

Heres who they need to offer:
NOT Mitch Haniger.

The AL West is a two-team race, and the rest of the AL contenders are rounding into form. Theres no realistic playoff course for this group, and chasing a longshot single-game road Wild Card appearance is an unsatisfactory reward.
That -50 ish run differential is going to return and bite them, hard. Keep in mind the Detroit series– yes, both of them? Remember how bad they looked? The North( west) keeps in mind.
The Mariners have suffered too many injuries this year to have the depth to make a run. It d be different if they anticipated gamers back this season, but with half the spring training rotation going down with TJ plus losing Kyle Lewis for an unidentified amount of time and Evan White for an even longer however still unknown amount of time, this isnt the group the Mariners imagined leading them into the playoffs. Better to reload and return stronger next year by moving the pieces the group can pay for to move.

If not a Mitch Haniger, can I interest you in a Jake Fraley?

Instead, the 28 year old Reds ace Castillo (under contract thru 2023), 26 year old Rockies stud Márquez (group control thru 2024), and 25 year old Cardinals stalwart Flaherty (thru 2023) are where the Ms needs to be focusing their energy.
Compromising the kind of possibility capital essential to get those talks moving– outbidding teams who are more strongly in their contention windows– most likely isnt the move.

CWS, NYM, CLE, STL, to call a few, perhaps BOS, ATL, or MIL; not all of these groups will stay in the hunt, however thats what trade due date upgrades are for, to assist make that push.

For a team that desires less of a rental and more of a long-term outfield solution, Fraley would be an appealing get, even with a minimal performance history in the bigs. He could cover center for a team badly doing not have fielding, and his on-base skills would partner well with a slugging-focused team like the White Sox or the Twins, must they somehow wiggle back into contention.
Would the Mariners give him up? Uncertain. Seattles outfield likely deals with an upcoming playing time crunch with Trammell up, Kelenic impending and Julio waiting in the wings. The Mariners dont have to deal Fraley, so it would need to be a trade that sends out substantial possibility capital back to Seattle, of the infielder variety. If theres a way to pry Nolan Gorman far from St. Louis, do it and dont look back.

It d be different if they expected gamers back this season, but with half the spring training rotation going down with TJ plus losing Kyle Lewis for an unknown period of time and Evan White for an even longer however still unknown duration of time, this isnt the team the Mariners visualized leading them into the playoffs. Better to refill and come back more powerful next year by moving the pieces the team can pay for to move.

This is the huge swing. The significant opportunity to upgrade at a position in such a way the club could not do so otherwise in free firm. This winter seasons crop of beginning pitchers has 3 categories: old and just recently great, young and just recently bad/hurt, or average. While Seattle can and should be swimming at the top of the market for position gamers, I can understand uneasiness at latching onto 35 year old Lance Lynn or 31 year old Kevin Gausman at the top of the crop. Rather, the 28 year old Reds ace Castillo (under agreement thru 2023), 26 year old Rockies stud Márquez (team control thru 2024), and 25 year old Cardinals stalwart Flaherty (thru 2023) are where the Ms ought to be focusing their energy.
A move like this is costly, more in possibility skill than economically, though there are ways for Seattle to lastly flex their unspent millions here better than in complimentary agency. Attempting to trade with the mid-budget Reds or Cardinals could be a chance to handle a contract, either straight or by engaging a third team. That might suggest tipping the scale on an offer moving somebody like George Kirby or Emerson Hancock (or, more dubiously, Brandon Williamson) as the headliner over the surface line in return for Castillo or Flaherty. It will likely take another piece or 2 in any case – Jake Fraley or Taylor Trammell for instance – to get things rolling, but the instant upgrade in the rotation is likely and huge long lasting.
While the Rockies have little left to cut away and years to go before contention, both NL Central clubs could dearly use cost-controlled skill. Moustakas might be moved to a contender like the Yankees who might chip in a fading young player like Miguel Andújar in return for a lefty swinger with stabilizing flexibility, and the Ms, Reds, and Yanks could swing their 2nd three-team deal in the previous couple of years.

Speaking of the Rockies, hear us out: Trevor Story.
Okay, probably not. As appealing as it is to pull a Betts/Lindor and lure a gamer who will be a totally free agent to Seattle to flaunt just how good our summer seasons are, the expense of obtaining any of those effect talents as a leasing is too steep for the Mariners, who arent most likely to make the playoffs this year, to pay … unless theres some type of understanding, as there seemed to be with Betts and the Dodgers. But sacrificing the type of prospect capital necessary to get those talks moving– outbidding groups who are more securely in their contention windows– most likely isnt the relocation. As much as this group needs a stable bat in the lineup, the most intelligent thing to do is probably to wait till the off-season to reel in their huge fish.
However what about Nelson Cruz?
Sure, maybe. The Twins are limited to American League suitors for Cruz, however one of those suitors is the Rays and their seemingly endless supply of potential customers. C.J. Cron is another possible target, but its hard to picture the Mariners getting into a bidding war for any of these players. It feels a lot more most likely that the Mariners have actually already made their position player acquisitions in Jake Bauers, and the soon-to-be-called up Jarred Kelenic and Cal Raleigh.

Always offer high up on bullpen arms, the most fungible of the fungible. Seattle has made a good little home market over the previous few years of cleaning off players from the DFA stack and upcycling them into various MLB bullpens, and this years crop is no various.
Groups who would be interested: all of them? Especial disasterpens on otherwise great competing or fringe-contending groups consist of Toronto, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Minnesota; if Seattle could swallow an in-division trade, both Oakland and Houstons bullpens are merely “meh.”.

Alternative Three: The Mariners must neither purchase nor offer!
It makes good sense because:.

Choice Two: The Mariners ought to be BUYERS!
Forget all that other sound. Offering off a group is depressing and demoralizing. Anyone who has participated in a little shopping will tell you, its a lot more enjoyable to store than to regretfully put one of those yard sale price on the forehead of every bullpen member.
It makes sense due to the fact that:.
Honestly this should be worded “it makes a particular kind of sense.” 1 year rentals arent enough to truly move the needle and press the Mariners past the heavyweights of the department, however the Mariners ought to be taking a look at trades that make the team much better over the next couple of years; or for rentals, acquisitions that put them in a good location to be signing gamers moving forward.
Heres who they need to get, and at what cost:.
Luis Castillo, Germán Márquez, or Jack Flaherty.

J.P. Crawford is the only “restore” (a.k.a. someone not qualified for FA for at least two more years) piece with more than 700 plate appearances, while only one of Justus Sheffield (167.2 career IP), Justin Dunn (102.2 IP), and Logan Gilbert (41.2 IP) have thrown what amounts to even a single seasons worth of starts in the majors. Certainly two-thirds of that trio has long had concerns about a supreme home in the bullpen, however seldom are 25 year olds their completed selves.
That does not imply Seattle can not or must not upgrade, however for as exasperating as the continued delaying of the Ms timeline has actually been, there is justification to the point of view that we simply do not understand sufficient about the clubs current group to start plugging holes with as much precision as we d like.
As any of you who have actually done Sporcles asking if you can “call all the 20xx Mariners”, things have been kind of a revolving door around here the past few years. Gamers were here for a great time but not a long period of time (Denard! Dae-Ho!), or a bad time and also not a long period of time (lookin at you, Adam Lind), or a bad time that in some way felt unlimited (hey there, Casey Fien, Bryan Shaw, and Cory Gearrin). Its not the worst thing to keep this group primarily intact and try to develop some camaraderie among this team.

How about our other Jake?
Jake Bauers hasnt been in Seattle long and his numbers are dragged down by a 53 wRC+ from his time with Cleveland, but his solid on-base numbers and plus defense at first base make him an excellent inexpensive buy for Boston, where novice Michael Chavis hasnt shown himself to be all set for prime-time simply. As a reward, Bauers can cover some outfield, another location where the Red Sox might use a boost. Boston might go splashier for a due date acquisition as they hear the creaking of their contention window slamming shut, however Bauers is a clear upgrade over both Chavis and fellow rookie Bobby Dalbec, who in addition to not striking well likewise ranks dead last in Statcasts Outs Above Average for first base, at -5.
For sale: one trio of bullpen arms, barely utilized.
Relief ace Kendall Graveman, along with [checks notes] relief aces Paul Sewald, Drew Steckenrider, and J.T. Chargois?

Choice Four: The Mariners must both purchase and offer!
It makes sense due to the fact that:.
A mix of small upgrades that do not lessen the future or the core and shipping off pieces at the height of their value will make the group much better now and for the future. Perhaps thats a splashy upgrade to the rotation like the one John lays out above, or possibly it includes consuming some money on a contract to get an MLB-adjacent possibility, or maybe thats an obstacle trade like the Marco Gonzales-Tyler ONeill trade where Seattle offers from their position of strength (pitching prospects) and obtains something they require (are you my third baseman?). This would be the ideal outcome, undoubtedly, and its most likely the one the team is working towards, however with over 3 weeks to go till the trade deadline and players getting hurt and teams falling into and out of contention, there are still plenty of twists and turns for this season to take prior to we begin the last leg towards the World Series.